A Special Report on ODM Turmoil, Kalonzo’s Coalition Strategy, and Martha Karua’s Moral Influence

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As Kenya approaches the defining 2027 general election, the country’s political landscape is undergoing rapid transformation. The departure of Raila Odinga from active politics created a vacuum now filled with competing ambitions, ideological realignments, and an increasingly assertive youth electorate.

Nowhere is this more evident than within the opposition, where emerging power centers are battling for influence — from Babu Owino’s generational challenge within ODM to Kalonzo Musyoka’s renewed coalition-building momentum and Martha Karua’s steady moral compass.

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The Firebrand and the Fractured House — Babu Owino’s ODM Crossroads

A Party Anniversary Turns Into a Defining Moment

On November 15, 2025, ODM’s 20th anniversary celebration at Mombasa’s Mama Ngina Waterfront was expected to be a nostalgic tribute to the Raila Odinga era. Instead, it became a turning point.

Embakasi East MP Babu Owino took the stage and delivered one of the most dramatic speeches of the year.
He revealed his growing frustrations over marginalization within ODM under newly confirmed party leader Siaya Senator Oburu Odinga.

“My voice cannot be ignored in a party I have fought for,” Owino declared, signaling for the first time that he may contest for the party’s top job.

A Generational Clash Unfolds

The friction stems from Owino’s exclusion from high-level decisions, including negotiations between ODM and the ruling UDA — a move that blindsided many youthful loyalists.

Oburu Odinga attempted to neutralize the tension, publicly promising Owino a transparent nomination process for the 2027 Nairobi governorship race.

But insiders say the rift reflects a deeper generational struggle.

“This is no longer about positions — it’s about the future identity of ODM.”

Party elders fear Owino’s growing support base could ignite internal rivalries, while young supporters see him as the face of ODM’s next chapter.

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Kalonzo Musyoka’s Quiet, Calculated Rise

A Statesman Repositioning for 2027

While ODM wrestles with internal challenges, Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka has been quietly rebuilding momentum.
Throughout 2025, Kalonzo toured key regions, including Bondo — a symbolic stronghold of the Odinga legacy — where he received an unexpectedly warm reception.

Governor Wavinya Ndeti openly urged Raila’s supporters to rally behind Kalonzo, framing him as the natural successor to the opposition’s leadership.

An Architect of a New Coalition Map

Kalonzo’s strategy is deliberate: he is crafting a broad-based alliance crossing traditional ethnic and generational divides.

His invitation to Babu Owino to join Wiper if ODM becomes untenable sparked national debate — and intrigue.

“Kalonzo isn’t just positioning himself; he’s redrawing the architecture of the opposition.”

Analysts increasingly see Kalonzo as the potential anchor of a multi-party coalition capable of challenging Kenya Kwanza in 2027.

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Martha Karua — The Moral Counterweight in a Turbulent Political Climate

Martha Karua has emerged as the most principled and consistent voice in Kenya’s opposition. Throughout 2025, she has condemned President Ruto’s repeated use of demeaning language against political opponents, arguing that such rhetoric corrodes the democratic fabric.

Karua has also championed the importance of peaceful transitions of power and constitutional accountability.

Her insistence on ethical leadership is resonating with voters — especially urban and middle-class citizens seeking dignity in politics.

“Power must be exercised with respect. Without values, democracy loses its meaning.” — Martha Karua

As coalition talks intensify, many see Karua as a potential kingmaker or running mate in any credible opposition formation.

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The Wider Opposition Landscape — A Crowded Field of Ambition

Beyond ODM and Wiper, a constellation of parties is reshaping Kenya’s political chessboard:

Rigathi Gachagua’s DCP:

Emerging strong in Mt. Kenya, tapping into grassroots economic frustrations.

Eugene Wamalwa’s DAP-K:

A vocal critic of government performance, projecting reformist credentials.

Jubilee under Uhuru Kenyatta:

Quiet but strategically influential, focusing on stabilizing the opposition.

The People’s Liberation Party (PLP):

Karua and Justin Muturi’s platform pushing governance reforms and institutional oversight.

Behind the scenes, strategists are using data models to test presidential ticket scenarios. Combos under consideration include:

• Kalonzo – Wamalwa

• Kalonzo – Karua

• Matiang’i – Kalonzo

Each pairing is designed to balance regional power bases with technocratic credibility.

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The Gen Z Factor — Kenya’s New Electoral Powerhouse

With an estimated 10 million Gen Z voters expected in 2027, no serious political formation can ignore the demographic shift.

Opposition strategists are considering bold proposals:

• Reserving top government roles (Prime Minister, Deputy PM) for youth

• Creating youth-led ministries

• Empowering digital-first political engagement

Babu Owino remains one of the most influential figures in this demographic, even as his political direction remains uncertain.

“Whoever wins Gen Z wins 2027.”

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Ruto at ODM’s Anniversary — A Political Earthquake

President Ruto’s surprise appearance at ODM’s 20th anniversary — alongside former president Uhuru Kenyatta — sent shockwaves across the political class.

The symbolism was impossible to ignore.

Analysts interpret it as:

• A possible thawing of relations

• A pre-election realignment

• A strategic maneuver to unsettle the opposition

Whatever the intention, it has added a layer of unpredictability to an already unstable political landscape.

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Conclusion: Unity or Fragmentation? Kenya’s Opposition at a Defining Crossroads

The months leading to 2027 will determine whether the opposition can converge around a unified, credible challenge or splinter into competing factions.

Kenya’s political future hinges on:

• ODM resolving its generational tensions

• Kalonzo consolidating a broad coalition

• Karua anchoring ethical leadership

• Minor parties aligning strategically

• Gen Z shaping the national conversation

This moment marks more than an election cycle — it represents a major transition in Kenya’s political evolution, with old alliances collapsing and new ones forming in real time.

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