UDA Sweeps Key Seats as By-elections Shake Up National Assembly and County Wards

Nairobi, Kenya — The November 27, 2025 by-elections delivered a strong performance for the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA), which secured several parliamentary and county-ward seats, while opposition and newer parties maintained influence in traditional strongholds and gained ground in some counties.

📌 National Assembly: Mixed Results but UDA Gains Key Seats

• In Mbeere North (Embu), UDA’s Leonard Wa Muthende was declared MP-elect with 15,802 votes, narrowly defeating DP’s Newton Kariuki (Karish), who received 15,308 votes.
• In Banissa (Mandera), UDA’s Ahmed Maalim Hassan won convincingly with 10,431 votes, beating UPA’s Nurdin Maalim Mohamed who had 1,240 votes.
• In Malava (Kakamega), reports indicate that UDA captured the seat from DAP-Kenya, reflecting the party’s deeper penetration in western Kenya.

But the opposition still held ground:

• In Kasipul (Homa Bay), the longstanding support base of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) held firm — ODM’s Boyd Ongondo Were won with 16,819 votes against independent Philip Aroko’s 8,476.
• In Ugunja (Siaya), ODM’s Moses Omondi Okoth emerged victorious with 9,447 votes.

Overall, the by-election round reaffirmed UDA’s strength while highlighting enduring loyalty to opposition parties in their strongholds, especially in Nyanza and parts of western Kenya.

🏛 County Ward Races: New Faces, Narrow Margins

The by-elections also filled several county assembly seats:

• In Samburu’s Angata Nanyokie Ward, UDA’s Isabella Leshimpiro won with 1,239 votes. She becomes the first female MCA for that ward, succeeding her late husband.
• In Machakos’ Mumbuni North Ward, Antony Kisoi of the Wiper Democratic Front captured the seat with 3,849 votes, reinforcing Wiper’s hold in the region.
• In Narok’s Narok Town Ward, the newly formed Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) claimed the seat via Douglas Twala Masikonde, who secured 6,007 votes, beating UDA’s Robert Kanyinke Ole Kudate, who got 4,479 votes.
• In Nyamira’s Nyansiongo Ward, PDP candidate Jackson Mogusu edged out a UPA opponent with 2,759 votes against 2,687.

These outcomes reflect shifting grassroots dynamics — including the entrance of new parties like DCP — and a voter base increasingly open to alternatives beyond traditional strongholds.

🚨 What the Results Mean for 2027 and Beyond

• Strengthened UDA positioning: The ruling party’s gains in key parliamentary seats — especially narrow but strategic wins in Mbeere North, Banissa, and Malava — showcase its continued national reach and organisational strength ahead of the 2027 general elections.
• Opposition resilience in traditional bastions: Despite UDA’s advances, parties like ODM held onto core constituencies in Nyanza and Siaya, indicating enduring loyalty and regional identity politics.
• Emergence of newer parties at grassroots level: The success of DCP in Narok Town Ward and PDP in Nyamira suggests growing appetite for fresh political alternatives — a factor that could complicate traditional two-party dominance.
• Low voter turnout and security concerns: Observers noted that turnout was relatively subdued in several areas, with some reports of intimidation or unrest. While most polling stations reportedly ran smoothly, the marginal nature of some wins may fuel future disputes.

🔎 Looking Ahead

As Kenya heads toward 2027, the November 27 by-elections serve as a litmus test for party strength, voter sentiment, and political momentum. UDA’s gains could bolster the ruling coalition’s confidence — but opposition resilience and the rise of newer parties suggest that the political terrain remains fluid.

The onus will be on all parties to convert these by-election results into sustained grassroots engagement, coherent development programs, and credible governance. For now, the November polls have reshuffled the deck, and Kenya’s political players are recalibrating ahead of the next general election cycle.